Alberta natural gas expected to see a bump next year thanks to LNG exports: Deloitte

A new report from advisory firm Deloitte is forecasting a big jump in Alberta natural gas prices next year, with the country's first West Coast export facility now up and running.

The Alberta benchmark AECO price is expected to average $2.20 per mmBTU in the second half of this year and then rise to an average of $3.50 per mmBTU in 2026.

It averaged $1.36 per mmBTU last year.

By the end of the forecast in 2032, the average AECO price is expected to hit $4 per mmBTU.

Alberta producers now have an outlet for their gas to markets beyond the United States with LNG Canada shipping its first cargo of ultra-chilled gas across the Pacific to Asia from Kitimat, B.C., last week.

Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says that will give producers the confidence they need to invest in new drilling, while consumers who use natural gas to heat their homes can expect to see their bills go up.

"It's really an opportunity for producers to get to get volumes into another sales point, which dramatically changes things," he said.

For many years, Albertans have enjoyed relatively cheap natural gas.

"Things do look stronger now than they have in the past, but we're also right in the middle of the summer when the natural gas pricing is at its low," he said.

"Through the remainder of this year and into next year, our natural gas price is going to be higher and it's going to cost more to put through our furnaces."

Based on current levels of drilling and capital spending, Deloitte predicts Canadian producers will not fill demand from current LNG export projects operating or in the works for four two seven years, meaning Alberta pricing should remain strong for the foreseeable future.

For oil, Deloitte is predicting West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude benchmark, to average US$72 a barrel in the second half of this year, dipping to US$67.30 next year and rising to US$74.65 by 2032.

Botterill said Canadian companies can manage that price range well, especially since they benefit from a strong U.S. dollar. The price discount for western Canadian heavy crude has also narrowed thanks to the startup last year of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the Vancouver area, through which meaningful volumes can be sold in Asia.

"While the price isn't as robust ... Canadian companies are managing quite well, but they're being cautious on where they deploy capital and not spending too much too quickly."