Canada Home Sales Expected to Fall 5.2% in 2026, Recovery Forecast for 2027

Canada’s housing market could face another challenging year, as the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has lowered its forecast for home sales in 2026 for the third consecutive quarter.

CREA had previously projected a modest increase in home sales this year. However, amid growing market uncertainty, it now expects 444,530 homes to be sold by the end of 2026, representing a 5.2 per cent decline compared with 2025.

According to CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart, higher fixed mortgage rates have weighed on home sales. Buyers are also expected to remain cautious in the final months of the year amid concerns that the Bank of Canada could raise interest rates to contain inflation driven by global factors.

Despite the weaker outlook for 2026, CREA expects the market to recover next year. If interest rates see only limited changes, home sales could increase by 4.4 per cent in 2027, the association forecasts.