Canada Could Face Major Economic Hit from Trump’s Tariff War, Economists Warn

Canada could suffer significant economic losses if U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff war becomes a reality, according to economists. While election promises may differ from actual policy, experts warn that a renewed trade war could lead to substantial new costs for Canada.

Rebecca Young, Vice President and Economist at the Bank of Nova Scotia, noted that if Canada is hit by serious economic shocks, any government in power would likely need to introduce relief packages. She compared the potential situation to past crises such as the 2008 financial meltdown and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Doug Porter, Chief Economist at the Bank of Montreal, added that he wouldn't be surprised if the federal deficit exceeds $60 billion this year. He said a portion of the added deficit may carry over into the next year as well.

Before the potential trade conflict emerged, the federal government had projected a $48-billion deficit for 2025. Young warned that if a trade war cannot be avoided, the deficit could rise sharply.