Alberta projects $6.4B deficit as lower oil prices strain provincial revenues

Alberta is now forecasting a $6.4-billion deficit for the current fiscal year as softer oil prices and ongoing trade uncertainty continue to weigh on the province’s finances. The updated number represents only a modest improvement from the $6.5-billion shortfall estimated in the summer fiscal outlook.

The new projection marks a significant reversal from last year’s $8.3-billion surplus, underscoring how quickly Alberta’s resource-driven revenues can shift. According to the province, non-renewable resource income has fallen by roughly 30 per cent compared with last year, a decline driven largely by weaker global energy markets.

Budget documents released in February had assumed West Texas Intermediate crude would average US$68 per barrel. The province now expects prices to hover closer to US$61.50, a change that directly affects royalty and corporate tax revenues. Economists in Alberta say that even small movements in oil prices can create substantial swings in the province’s bottom line because of its heavy reliance on the energy sector.

Finance Minister Nate Horner said the past year has brought financial challenges for households and businesses across Alberta and noted that the government’s focus remains on maintaining spending discipline. The updated figures come as municipalities, school divisions and health-care sectors across the province wait to see how reduced revenue will influence future budget decisions.