Alberta Separation Could Cost Up to $170B in First Five Years

A new report commissioned by the Alberta government estimates that the cost of separating Alberta from Canada could reach $170 billion during the first five years.

The report, prepared by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, estimates the transition could cost at least $50 billion, with the upper-end estimate reaching $170 billion. The costs would include building new infrastructure, hiring and transitioning staff, and covering Alberta’s share of the federal debt.

The report examines two possible scenarios for separation. One assumes a relatively smooth and cooperative transition with Ottawa, while the other considers a more difficult and costly process if the federal government takes a hardline position during negotiations.

Albertans are scheduled to vote on October 19, 2026, on whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or whether the provincial government should begin the legal process required to hold a future binding referendum on separation.