Report warns Canada risks losing skilled newcomers as early departures persist

A new analysis from the Institute for Canadian Citizenship suggests Canada continues to face long-term challenges retaining the newcomers it admits each year. The study reports that roughly one in five immigrants leaves the country within 25 years of arrival, with most departures occurring during the first five years. The findings echo concerns raised in recent years by settlement agencies and provincial governments that have been working to improve support for newcomers.

The annual “Leaky Bucket” report indicates that departures are most common among highly educated immigrants, including individuals with doctorates and those working in fields such as business management, information technology and engineering. These sectors are also among those facing labour shortages in provinces like British Columbia and Alberta. The institute notes that higher-skilled workers often have global employment options, which may influence whether they choose to remain in Canada.

Using anonymized tax records, the institute considers a newcomer to have left Canada if they fail to file tax returns for two consecutive years and are not present in 2022 tax data. Based on current patterns, the report estimates that more than 20,000 of the approximately 380,000 permanent residents expected to arrive next year could depart by 2031. The organization says this trend underscores the importance of retention strategies that go beyond recruitment.

The institute is urging the federal government to introduce a coordinated national plan focused on supporting internationally trained professionals and improving pathways to long-term economic participation. Several provinces have already signalled interest in stronger retention measures, particularly in regions experiencing rapid population growth and pressure on local services.