17.13°C Vancouver

Apr 3, 2020 5:44 PM -

Projections show between 3,000 and 15,000 could die from COVID-19 in Ontario

Share On
projections-show-between-3-000-and-15-000-could-die-from-covid-19-in-ontario
Dr. Peter Donnelly, President and CEO of Public Health Ontario, addresses a media briefing on COVID-19 provincial modelling in Toronto, Friday, April 3, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

The steps the Ontario government has taken so far to limit the spread of COVID-19 have likely saved tens of thousands of lives, public health officials said Friday, but even with further action the death toll could reach as high as 15,000.

Projections released by the province showed 100,000 Ontario residents could likely have died over the full course of the pandemic if the province hadn't implemented measures such as widespread closures of businesses and schools in order to promote physical distancing.

As it is, the figures estimate thousands of people could still die without more aggressive measures in place.

Dr. Peter Donnelly, president of Public Health Ontario, said the data paint a stark picture of the gravity of the situation facing the province — and the need for ongoing action.

"If we do everything that we can think of — everything that already has been done stays in place, all of the other measures that are being considered put in place — then I think we could reduce the death toll in Ontario to somewhere between 3,000 and 15,000," he said. "Where we end up depends on all of us."

According to the projections, Ontario would have seen 300,000 cases of COVID-19 by the end of April had nothing been done. Current measures in place will likely bring that number down to 80,000, while further measures could lower it to 12,500.

Similarly, the number of deaths would have hit 6,000 by month's end with no measures, Donnelly said. Staying the course is projected to reduce the death toll by April 30 to 1,600, and keep it as low as 200 with even tighter restrictions than are now in place.

Donnelly and other officials offered suggestions for such measures. Those included reducing the list of essential businesses that are currently allowed to operate, imposing entry restrictions on some communities including First Nations, providing more protection for seniors and tightening guidance on physical distancing.

Donnelly said the projections, which are far from set in stone, span the full course of the outbreak. He said that could last as long as 18 months to two years if second and third waves of the virus are considered.

The number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities in Ontario continued their upward trajectory on Friday, though those figures were eclipsed by the surge in cases that are now considered resolved.

The province reported 462 new cases, bringing the total number of infections to 3,255. Deaths climbed by 14 for a total of 67 provincewide.

Those figures did not include four new deaths at a central Ontario nursing home, the scene of one of the largest outbreaks in the country.

Twenty of the roughly 65 residents of Pinecrest Nursing Home in Bobcaygeon, Ont., have died in recent weeks. At least 24 staff members at the facility have also tested positive for COVID-19.

The province has reported numerous outbreaks at long-term care facilities across Ontario.

But the number of resolved cases also surged significantly, climbing more than 30 per cent to 1,023 from 831 on Thursday.

Latest news

almost-half-of-canadians-want-the-temporary-foreign-worker-program-eliminated-poll
CanadaSep 08, 2025

Almost half of Canadians want the Temporary Foreign Worker program eliminated: poll

A new poll suggests 44 per cent of Canadians want to see the temporary foreign worker program scrapped as the country grapples with high unemployment, especially among young people. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre recently proposed eliminating the program in response to high youth unemployment. The new Abacus Data poll, which was conducted online and can't be assigned a margin of error, suggests that support for eliminating the program is higher among younger age cohorts, topping 50 per cent of 30- to 44-year-old respondents and hitting 48 per cent of those 18 to 29. Support for ending th
union-to-announce-next-phase-of-b-c-public-service-strike
BCSep 08, 2025

Union to announce next phase of B.C. public service strike

The president of the B.C. General Employees’ Union is set to make an announcement this morning laying out the next phase of the union's public service strike. The union says Paul Finch is scheduled to speak at a picket line in Surrey on the fifth consecutive day of picketing following the launch of job action last Tuesday. The union represents more than 34,000 members working for B.C.'s public service and has held picket lines at locations including government sites in Victoria, Surrey, and Prince George, and the Royal BC Museum. It says some of its key asks include competitive wages and fai
radio-connect-fm-canada-extends-a-helping-hand-to-the-flood-victims-of-punjab
CanadaSep 08, 2025

Radio Connect FM Canada extends a helping hand to the flood victims of Punjab

Connect FM Radio has decided to run a special donation and fundraising campaign on Monday, September 8, as a special initiative to help the flood affected families of Punjab. This program is being run in collaboration with Guru Nanak Food Bank Gurdwara Dukh Niwaran Sahib Surrey and Sanjha TV. The funds collected under this program will be delivered to Punjab through capable hands to the flood affected families so that their lives can be brought back on track. This program is expected to receive great support from all Canadians and especially the Punjabi community.
canadas-dabrowski-and-partner-routliffe-win-u-s-open-womens-doubles-title
EnglishSep 05, 2025

Canada's Dabrowski and partner Routliffe win U.S. Open women's doubles title

Canadian tennis player Gabriela Dabrowski has won the US Open Grand Slam title with her New Zealand partner Erin Rutliff. The Canadian player won the women's doubles title in straight sets with her partner. Together, the two defeated the pair of Taylor Townsend and Katerina Siniakova 6-4, 6-4. Earlier, Gabriela Dabrowski also won the US Open title in 2023. Pawan Sahni, of Newton Tennis Club in Surrey, says “the win is a boost for Canadian tennis.” He added, on one hand, just a few weeks ago, young player Victoria Mboko won the Canadian Open title, and now, with Canada's senior player win
BCSep 05, 2025

Coquihalla Highway reopened following wildfire closure

The Coquihalla Highway (Highway 5) between Hope and Merritt has reopened in both directions following a closure caused by the Mine Creek wildfire. Due to the proximity of the fire, drivers should be prepared for the Coquihalla Highway to be closed with minimal notice. Drivers are advised to not stop in the fire zone. Intermittent lane closures can be expected as crews continue to assess and repair roadside damage, and visibility is reduced due to wildfire smoke. Drivers should also be prepared for an increased risk of wildlife presence due to fire damage to wildlife-exclusion fencing on this s

Related News