Modelling group says COVID-19 cases declining in British Columbia

An independent group of researchers analyzing the course of COVID-19 in British Columbia says cases are declining at about two per cent a day but children under 10 could now be more at risk of contracting the virus because they are unvaccinated.

The experts in epidemiology, mathematics and data analysis from three universities in B.C. and the private sector say that age group had half the case rate earlier this year relative to those who are older, but that risk may rise.

They say in a new report that the use of masks indoors and regional measures in areas with high case counts helped to stabilize the number of cases through the fall, but future risks could come from more time indoors as the weather cools and more transmissible variants evolve.

The report says the number of patients in intensive care units rose in September but has since returned to levels seen earlier in the year as B.C.'s proof of vaccination card helped to boost vaccination rates.

It says communities with 95 per cent of eligible people vaccinated have 4.3 times fewer COVID-19 cases than those with 75 per cent vaccination.

The group says that over the next three weeks, projections suggest cases are expected to decline in all health authorities as immunity levels build among the immunized.