Bank of Canada to resume economic forecasts with cautious outlook amid global uncertainty

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says the central bank will take a cautious approach as it resumes formal economic forecasting later this month, acknowledging the need for “humility” in the face of continued trade uncertainty.

The Bank of Canada is expected to release its next economic outlook alongside an interest rate announcement on October 29 its first full forecast this year. The central bank paused detailed projections earlier in 2025, citing unpredictable global conditions tied to U.S. tariffs and shifting trade relations.

Speaking from Washington, D.C., where he is attending the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings, Macklem told reporters that while trade tensions have eased somewhat since the spring, risks to global commerce remain.

He noted that many Canadian businesses continue to delay investment and hiring decisions due to these uncertainties. However, Macklem said growth in artificial intelligence and related technologies has offered a “countervailing force,” helping to sustain private investment despite the unsettled environment.

The upcoming forecast will aim to balance optimism about emerging sectors with recognition of persistent international headwinds, Macklem said.