11.45°C Vancouver

Apr 16, 2025 7:12 PM - Connect Newsroom

Bank of Canada Presents Two Economic Scenarios Amid Trade War Uncertainty

Share On
bank-of-canada-presents-two-economic-scenarios-amid-trade-war-uncertainty
Governor Tiff McCallum said that the bank’s monetary policy cannot cope with the uncertainty of the trade war.(Photo: The Canadian Press)

The Bank of Canada has presented two possible scenarios instead of precise economic forecasts for the first time since COVID, one of which predicts a deep recession and a possible increase in inflation in Canada.

The bank’s first scenario assumes that if tariffs are withdrawn through negotiations, the economy will only stagnate in the second quarter, after which it will gradually grow back. But the second scenario is that if the trade war lasts longer, the Canadian economy will go into recession for a year and inflation will rise to 3.5 per cent by mid-2026. Governor Tiff McCallum said that the bank’s monetary policy cannot cope with the uncertainty of the trade war.

McCallum also stated that a lot has happened since the Bank’s decision in March five weeks ago, and the future remains unclear. He noted that it is still unknown which tariffs will be imposed, whether they will be reduced or increased, and how long the situation will persist. He described the current environment as one of complete uncertainty.

Latest news

white-rock-rcmp-continue-to-search-for-justin-fisher-two-years-after-his-disappearance
BCOct 08, 2025

White Rock RCMP continue to search for Justin Fisher, two years after his disappearance

On the two-year anniversary of his disappearance, White Rock RCMP is renewing their plea for information about Justin Fisher. On October 8, 2023, White Rock RCMP received a report of found property and determined it belonged to Justin Kyle Fisher. The last known sighting of Justin Fisher was in White Rock, BC in the 15000 block of Marine Drive, on October 7, 2023. His backpack containing his belongings was found in the water about 100 metres offshore by a kayaker on October 8, 2023. Based on our investigation, we do not believe there is any criminality associated to his disappearance. As the i
alberta-education-minister-concerned-about-private-school-funding-petition
AlbertaOct 08, 2025

Alberta education minister concerned about private school funding petition

Alberta's education minister says cutting government funding to private schools would only escalate the pressure faced by the province's strained public school system. Demetrios Nicolaides says thousands of children would need to find new schools to attend, likely public schools, which he says are already under immense pressure. The funding cut is a move one Calgary teacher is hoping to put to a vote. This week Alberta's chief electoral officer approved the teacher's proposed referendum question, which asks: ``Should the Government of Alberta end its current practice of allocating
all-b-c-government-liquor-cannabis-stores-now-behind-workers-pickets
BCOct 08, 2025

All B.C. government liquor, cannabis stores now behind workers' pickets

All remaining British Columbia-run liquor and cannabis stores in the province are now behind picket lines as public service workers step up union job action. The escalation by the BC General Employees' Union also includes all Service BC workers, raising the total number of members participating in job action to almost 25,000. Private liquor and cannabis stores in B.C. remain open, but they are supplied by provincial government distribution warehouses that are also behind picket lines. Service BC provides residents with services related to drivers licensing, income and disability ass
house-committee-adds-language-security-checks-to-lost-canadians-bill
CanadaOct 08, 2025

House committee adds language, security checks to 'Lost Canadians' bill

The House of Commons immigration committee is recommending most adults eligible for birthright citizenship under the "Lost Canadians" bill fulfil similar requirements to immigrant applicants, on language, knowledge of Canadian history and security checks. MPs on the committee adopted amendments on Tuesday to Bill C-3, which will go back to the House of Commons for approval. The bill responds to a 2023 Ontario court ruling overturning a Stephen Harper-era law which prohibited Canadians born aboard from passing down citizenship if their children were not born in Canada The bill proposes that in
canada-post-union-set-for-meeting-with-ottawa-as-strike-stretches-on
CanadaOct 08, 2025

Canada Post union set for meeting with Ottawa as strike stretches on

The union representing striking Canada Post employees says it will meet with the federal minister in charge of the Crown corporation after accusing Ottawa of trampling on the collective bargaining process. Postal workers took to the picket lines nearly two weeks ago after Procurement Minister Joël Lightbound announced sweeping changes to Canada Post's mandate that would allow the struggling postal service to overhaul its operations in the midst of negotiations with the union. The Canadian Union of Postal Workers is asking the minister to roll back the changes that include permitting the end o

Related News